Policy Brief: Managing the Impacts of the March 2025 Myanmar Earthquake

Published By- AF Development Care (AFDC), New Delhi, India

Published on 6 April 2025

Citation: AF Development Care. 2025. Policy Brief: Managing the Impacts of the March 2025 Myanmar Earthquake. New Delhi, India https://afdc.in/listing_detail.php?programme=263 

Copy Right- AF Development Care, New Delhi, India

Key Message

The 7.7-magnitude earthquake on March 28, 2025, in Myanmar has resulted in over 2,719 deaths, $36 billion in damages (70% of GDP), and affected 28 million people across six regions, exacerbating an existing humanitarian crisis The Current commitments of $33 million fall significantly short of the $100 million immediate need and broader recovery requirements, with access hindered by conflict and governance challenges. The urgent policy actions—regional coordination, a temporary ceasefire, and scaled-up funding—are critical to mitigate immediate impacts and build resilience ahead of the monsoon season.

Sachi Satapathy

Executive Director, AF Development Care, New Delhi, India

Context and Scale of the Disaster

On March 28, 2025, a 7.7-magnitude earthquake struck central Myanmar near Mandalay, followed by a 6.4-magnitude aftershock, along the seismically active Sagaing Fault. This event, the most severe in Myanmar in over a century, has caused widespread loss of life, infrastructure collapse, and economic disruption, with ripple effects felt in Thailand, Laos, Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, and China. Myanmar’s pre-existing vulnerabilities—19.9 million people in humanitarian need, 3.5 million displaced by conflict, and a fragile economy—amplify the disaster’s impact. The military junta’s declaration of a state of emergency in six regions underscores the crisis’s scale, yet restrictions on information and access complicate response efforts.

Impact Assessment: Key Data

The table below synthesizes the latest publicly available data on the earthquake’s impacts, costs, and response as of April 6, 2025, drawing from humanitarian reports, news sources, and official statements.

Indicator

Estimate

Source

Fatalities

2,719–3,000+ (Number is increasing on every single day)

Reuters (2025), UN News (2025)

Injured

4,500+ (Myanmar); 35 (Thailand)

Centre for Disaster Philanthropy (2025)

Affected Population

28 million (six regions); 6.1 million directly impacted

CARE Australia (2025)

Economic Damage

$36 billion (70% of GDP)

USGS via X (2025), CDP (2025)

Infrastructure Losses

1,591 houses, roads, bridges, hospitals

BBC (2025), IRC (2025)

Displacement

Thousands (exact figures pending)

IRC (2025), NPR (2025)

Immediate Budget Need

$100 million (Red Cross appeal)

BBC (2025), IRC (2025)

Pledged Commitments

$33 million (Quad, UN, others)

UN News (2025)

Notes: Estimates are preliminary due to restricted data access and ongoing aftershocks. Economic losses may rise with monsoon-related impacts.

  • Risk Drivers and Compounding Factors: The disaster’s severity reflects Myanmar’s high exposure to seismic risk along the Sagaing Fault, coupled with systemic vulnerabilities:
  • Conflict and Governance: Four years of civil war have weakened infrastructure and response capacity, while junta censorship limits damage assessments.
  • Economic Fragility: With a GDP of approximately $51 billion (pre-disaster), the $36 billion loss threatens long-term recovery in a sanctioned economy.
  • Climate Risks: The approaching monsoon season (May–October) heightens the risk of flooding, landslides, and disease outbreaks (e.g., cholera, malaria).
  • Regional Spillover: Cross-border impacts, such as the collapse of a high-rise in Bangkok (22 deaths), necessitate a coordinated Asia-Pacific response.

Current Response and Gaps

Initial international support includes $20 million from Quad partners (US, Australia, India, Japan), $5 million from UN OCHA, and $8 million via a UN appeal. The Red Cross has appealed for $100 million to address immediate needs—shelter, food, water, and medical care—but funding remains inadequate. Key gaps include:

  • Access Constraints: Damaged infrastructure and junta restrictions block aid delivery to conflict zones.
  • Funding Deficit: Pledges cover only 33% of the Red Cross appeal, with broader recovery costs unaddressed.
  • Data Limitations: Communication blackouts hinder real-time casualty and damage reporting.

Policy Recommendations

Drawing on regional best practices and the Asia-Pacific disaster management framework, the following recommendations aim to address immediate needs and enhance resilience:

  1. Establish an Asia-Pacific Humanitarian Coordination Mechanism

Objective: Improve aid delivery efficiency in a conflict-affected context.
Action: Leverage ASEAN’s AHA Centre and Quad partners to establish a regional hub in Thailand, coordinating logistics, data sharing, and cross-border relief. This aligns with the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2023 emphasis on integrated regional responses (UN-GGIM-AP, 2023).

Outcome: Enhanced access to 6.1 million directly affected people, bypassing junta-controlled areas.

  1. Negotiate a Temporary Ceasefire for Humanitarian Access

Objective: Ensure safe passage for relief operations amid ongoing conflict.
Action: The UN Special Envoy, supported by Quad nations and China, should broker a 30-day ceasefire, building on precedents like the Three Brotherhood Alliance’s post-quake proposal (Reuters, 2025). This echoes the MPFD Policy Brief call for conflict-sensitive disaster response (UNESCAP, 2023).

Outcome: Reduced risks to aid workers and expanded reach to 28 million in emergency-declared regions.

  1. Mobilize a Regional Financing Facility for Recovery

Objective: Bridge the funding gap and prepare for monsoon-related risks.

Action: Launch a $500 million Asia-Pacific funding appeal, modelled on the Asia-Pacific Policy Brief recommendation for pooled resources (ReliefWeb, 2023). Allocate funds transparently via local NGOs, with oversight from UN agencies.

Outcome: Immediate relief for millions and long-term resilience against climate-amplified disasters.

Conclusion

The March 2025 Myanmar earthquake underscores the region’s vulnerability to cascading risks—seismic activity, conflict, and climate threats. With damages exceeding 70% of GDP and millions at risk, the current response falls short. By adopting a coordinated regional approach, securing humanitarian access, and scaling financial commitments, Asia-Pacific stakeholders can mitigate this crisis and strengthen Myanmar’s resilience. Immediate action is imperative to avert a deeper catastrophe as the monsoon season looms.

References